– NewModule6ProblemWorkbook.xlsx

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Acme single-stage new product decision
Decision 1: Continue development and market the new product
Fixed cost $6,000
Unit margin $18
Market Probability Sales volume Net revenue
Great 0.45 600 $10,800
Fair 0.35 300 $5,400
Awful 0.20 90 $1,620
EMV $1,074
Decision 2: Stop development and abandon product
No payoffs, no costs, no uncertainty
EMV $0
1. Sensitivity to probability in cell B8 (Use one-way data table)
2. Explain the data table results.

All monetary values (except the unit margin in cell B5) are in $1000s, and all sales volumes are in 1000s of units.

Automobile inspections
Given Probabilities: Probability
P(inspected car has problems)
P(inspected car has no problems)
P(no problem found | inspected car has problems)
P(problem found | inspected car has problems)
P(no problem found | inspected car has no problems)
P(problem found | inspected car has no problems)
1. The goal is to find P(inspected car has problems | no problem was found).
P(inspected car has problems | no problem was found) =
P(inspected car has problems AND no problem found)/P(no problem found) =
P(no problem found | inspected car has problems)*P(inspected car has problems)/
(P(no problem found | inspected car has problems)*P(inspected car has problems) +
P(no problem found | inspected car has no problems)*P(inspected car has no problems))
which is equal to …(results)
2. Provide a brief clarification discussion about your results.
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