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|Acme single-stage new product decision|
|Decision 1: Continue development and market the new product|
|Market||Probability||Sales volume||Net revenue|
|Decision 2: Stop development and abandon product|
|No payoffs, no costs, no uncertainty|
|1. Sensitivity to probability in cell B8 (Use one-way data table)|
|2. Explain the data table results.|
All monetary values (except the unit margin in cell B5) are in $1000s, and all sales volumes are in 1000s of units.
|P(inspected car has problems)|
|P(inspected car has no problems)|
|P(no problem found | inspected car has problems)|
|P(problem found | inspected car has problems)|
|P(no problem found | inspected car has no problems)|
|P(problem found | inspected car has no problems)|
|1. The goal is to find P(inspected car has problems | no problem was found).|
|P(inspected car has problems | no problem was found) =|
|P(inspected car has problems AND no problem found)/P(no problem found) =|
|P(no problem found | inspected car has problems)*P(inspected car has problems)/|
|(P(no problem found | inspected car has problems)*P(inspected car has problems) +|
|P(no problem found | inspected car has no problems)*P(inspected car has no problems))|
|which is equal to …(results)|
|2. Provide a brief clarification discussion about your results.|
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